Cycling Race Analysis: How Decision Fatigue and Execution Shape Results

In the world of competitive cycling, raw numbers like power and fitness levels only tell part of the story. It's not just about how hard you can pedal; it's about how smart you can race. Recently, I did a cycling race analysis that perfectly illustrated this point with one of my coached athletes. His data was impressive, yet he finished with disappointment. So, what went wrong?

What the Cycling Race Data Analysis Showed

Over a 52-minute crit, he averaged 244W, hit a normalised power of 295W, and maintained an intensity factor of 0.98—right at the ceiling. His heart rate matched the effort: an average of 153bpm and max of 175bpm. In power terms, it was a spot on. In performance terms? He came away disappointed.

Chart 1: Anaerobic Battery Breakdown

This dFRC chart shows how the athlete's anaerobic capacity drained after repeated surges early in the race—and never fully recovered. The purple line flatlines before the final sprint, showing the tank was empty when it mattered.

So, What Happened?

He'd done too much work early. He'd bridged, controlled, and covered. And when it was time to go all-in, the mental matchbook was as empty as was the physical one. The limiter wasn’t legs; it was trust—in his prep, his ability, and the timing.

Chart 2: Race Matches and Sprint Decision

Over 1,100 surges above FTP and 300+ efforts into FRC territory. The legs were there. But the sprint—though launched at 771W—was abandoned. This moment shows how decision fatigue, not lack of fitness, changed the outcome.

From Data to Development: Coaching That Goes Beyond the Graph

Great coaching doesn’t stop at analysing numbers. It starts there, then digs deeper. What was the athlete feeling? What decisions did they make and why? What would they do differently next time?

We used this race to develop a new 4-week training block focused on bridging, settling, and sprinting from fatigue. We broke down the final lap decision-making in race simulations. We identified his true limiter—repeatability under load—and built a plan to address it.

Chart 3: Age Adjusted Strengths vs. Limiters Power Curve

This athlete's sustained power is excellent for his age group. But the short-duration power and repeatability? That’s where the work lies. These insights help turn training into targeted growth

Why This Matters to You 

You might be training hard, hitting the numbers, doing everything "right" and still not hitting your goals. That’s not your fault. Most training plans stop at FTP and TSS. But winning? That lives in the grey zone—between data and decision.

That’s where I coach.

If you're serious about improving as a rider—not just in fitness but in form, finesse, and follow-through—let's talk. I work with dedicated cyclists who want more than just a plan. They want to understand why they perform the way they do and how to evolve beyond it.

Ready to get coaching feedback and race analysis like this on your own race?

Book a free consultation and let’s dive into your power data. Book Here.